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In recent years, the field of neuroscience has gone through rapid experimental advances and a significant increase in the use of quantitative and computational methods. This growth has created a need for clearer analyses of the theory and modeling approaches used in the field. This issue is particularly complex in neuroscience because the field studies phenomena that cross a wide range of scales and often require consideration at varying degrees of abstraction, from precise biophysical interactions to the computations they implement. We argue that a pragmatic perspective of science, in which descriptive, mechanistic, and normative models and theories each play a distinct role in defining and bridging levels of abstraction, will facilitate neuroscientific practice. This analysis leads to methodological suggestions, including selecting a level of abstraction that is appropriate for a given problem, identifying transfer functions to connect models and data, and the use of models themselves as a form of experiment. 

Neural codes for sensory inputs have been hypothesized to reside in a broader space defined by ongoing patterns of spontaneous activity. To understand the structure of this spontaneous activity in the olfactory system, we performed high-density recordings of neural populations in the main olfactory bulb of awake mice. We observed changes in pairwise correlations of spontaneous activity between mitral and tufted (M/T) cells when animals were running, which resulted in an increase in the entropy of the population. Surprisingly, pairwise maximum entropy models that described the population activity using only assumptions about the firing rates and correlations of neurons were better at predicting the global structure of activity when animals were stationary as compared to when they were running, implying that higher order (3rd, 4th order) interactions governed population activity during locomotion. Taken together, we found that locomotion alters the functional interactions that shape spontaneous population activity at the earliest stages of olfactory processing, one synapse away from the sensory receptors in the nasal epithelium. These data suggest that the coding space available for sensory representations responds adaptively to the animal’s behavioral state. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The organization and structure of spontaneous population activity in the olfactory system places constraints of how odor information is represented. Using high-density electrophysiological recordings of mitral and tufted cells, we found that running increases the dimensionality of spontaneous activity, implicating higher order interactions among neurons during locomotion. Behavior, thus, flexibly alters neuronal activity at the earliest stages of sensory processing. 

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020. 

Abstract Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.